(For full lesson w/handouts, see link at bottom or attached document)
Decks of Card (1 per pair)
Students will attempt to predict attributes of cards and will analyze their success to understand the concept of probability as “chance” as opposed to skill.
Conducting the Experiments
Model for the students how they will be conducting each experiment. To do this, randomly select a card from a deck and hold it against your forehead so that the class can see it but you cannot. Tell them you will try to predict which card is showing. Make a guess and have the class tell you if you are correct. Do this one to two more times to ensure they understand how to conduct the experiment. Show the class the student page and how they will be recording their results. Then explain each of the three experiments by having students read each one aloud and modeling with cards. Once you are confident the students understand what to do, have groups get into pairs, pass out the student pages and decks of cards to each pair. Instruct the students to complete as many trials as possible in the time allotted. Set the timer for each experiment (5-7 minutes). When time is up, have each student record their total correct and then answer the question, “Do you or your partner appear to be able to predict?”
Once all three experiments are complete, give the students 10 minutes to complete the analysis questions. Complete the lesson with a class discussion focused on #2 and #3.