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The PDF linked below challenges a student to demonstrate an understanding of theoretical and empirical probability. A student must make sense of these probabilities and be able to represent the sample space for a given event in an organized manner. A student must be able to represent probabilities as ratios, proportions, decimals or percents. A student must determine and compare probabilities by finding commonality such as using percents or finding a common denominator. A student must determine the game with the best probability of winning.
http://www.insidemathematics.org/common-core-math-tasks/high-school/HS-S-2009%20Marble%20Game.pdf
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